Hans van Cleef, economist at ABN AMRO: "There is still growth potential for the raw materials market as a whole, however, no longer like in 2016. Oil prices doubled compared to the deepest point of last year. Repeating such a bound in 2017 is very unrealistic ". Also the situation in the US will not contribute to greater growth. "The dollar has been on a rise since the election of Donald Trump. Since raw materials are traded mainly in dollars, a more expensive dollar will have an impact on the demand. Possible new increases in interest rates in the U.S. will make the dollar even more expensive and slow down the growth of raw material prices." But the message remains the same: investing in raw materials offers return.
Barclays, the British financial services provider, sees the situation less on the bright side. In their research report titled "The Black Swans of 2017" they claim that 2017 can be an eventful year for raw materials. These analysts warn for a number of events which haven’t been taken into account in the current market prices. Among other things they have been given thought to the increasing populism and protectionism, through which political events may have an equally big impact on the raw material market as the economic climate.
Raw materials expert Boris Cukon is not optimistic about raw materials facing an oversupply, such as iron ore, aluminium and coal. Raw materials that can be assured of rising prices are copper, zinc, uranium, gold and diamond. The prices of these raw materials are driven by a structural deficit. The demand for these substances remains higher than the offer and this will continue in 2017.
